Charts and Stuff
WHAT IS THIS FOR?
I've found it very difficult to find charts of new cases per day. Most of the news outlets only have charts of cumulative cases - which all look very scary but aren't really that helpful. What you should want to know - is whether the total number of new cases is decreasing or increasing. This gives us and idea of whether the lock down is working.
Therefore - I created my own charts which will update daily based on the new information that we've been given. I hope this is useful to all of you - and please share it with others if it helps them understand what's going on.
WHAT SHOULD WE BE EXPECTING?
New Zealand officially entered a full lock down on Thursday 26 March 2020. The initial period of a the lock down is supposed to be 4 weeks, but this can be extended depending on how our number of cases is looking.
These are the following predictions:
1. New case numbers should continue to rise for 10-14 days.
2. Case numbers should be falling after if New Zealanders are compliant with the lock down.
3. As we are doing more testing - the number of cases should go up initially because we are just finding the cases that are out there in the community.
4. Another reason for the rise in numbers over time is because it's taking 4-5 days for test results to come back. Meaning that if someone is tested now and they are positive - their count will only be added 5 days later or so.
5. Returning Kiwis from overseas will boost the number of new cases.
6. Once lock down ends - our number of cases can rise very rapidly if a returning positive case starts to infect us again.